The fertility rate in India has significantly dropped from 6.2 in 1950 to slightly below 2 in 2021
Is there a correlation between development and lower birth rates, as well as a higher aging population?
Frank W. Notestein proposed a theory in the middle of the 20th century to explain how demographic changes occur during the shift from a less technologically advanced agricultural society to a more advanced one. The theory outlines four stages of societal transition:
Stage I: (Pre-Transition) Characterized by high birth and death rates due to famines, wars, and diseases, resulting in a stable population. This stage applies to societies before the 18th century with limited access to healthcare and basic sanitation.
Stage II: (Early Transition) Marked by a decreasing death rate due to improvements in health, sanitation, and food supply, while the birth rate remains high. Countries like Afghanistan and Yemen are currently in this stage.
Stage III: (Late Transition) Defined by a decreasing birth rate due to contraception availability, education, and improved status of women, leading to population stabilization. Countries like India and Turkey fall into this category.
Stage IV: (Post-Transition)
Where birth and death rates are low, resulting in minimal population growth. These societies have an aging population with fertility rates below replacement level. Developed countries l like the U.S.A, New Zealand, and Korea exemplify this stage.
Replacement level is set at 2.1, at which the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a society must be maintained to keep the population stable.
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